Methodology.
Official top-line figures are politically determined targets. Here is how we build a ground-truth assessment.
The Li Keqiang Index Principle
In 2007, then-Premier Li Keqiang famously told the US Ambassador that Chinese GDP figures were "man-made" and therefore unreliable. He stated that he evaluated the economy by looking at three things: electricity consumption, railway cargo volume, and bank loans. We apply a modern extension of this principle.
Our Three-Pillar Approach
1. Physical Volume Proxies
Value-based metrics are easily manipulated via inflation adjustments or channel stuffing. We track hard, physical metrics that correlate directly with industrial output and consumption:
- Heavy duty truck sales and excavator operating hours.
- Industrial electricity consumption by province.
- Port container throughput (TEUs) and dry bulk freight indices.
- Steel rebar inventory drawdowns.
2. Trading Partner Reconciliation
China's export data often diverges from what its trading partners report as imports. By comparing Chinese customs data against the import registries of the US, EU, and ASEAN nations, we can identify discrepancies that suggest capital flight disguised as trade invoicing, or simple data smoothing.
3. Satellite and Geospatial Data
We utilize commercial satellite data to track nighttime luminosity (a proxy for broader economic activity) and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) to measure inventory levels in crude oil storage tanks and the structural completion rates of major property developments.
Click to see how a headline GDP figure is stress-tested in our model.
Access Our Data
Our raw datasets and historical models are available via our Data Room.
Go to Data Room